I haven't posted to the blog since March... Really? Well, there are two notable events in the current GFS model forecast, so perhaps now is a good time to break the no-post streak.
The first event is a ridge of warm air wafting over Greenland Sunday, June 15th - Monday, June 16th, where on both days about half of the Greenland ice sheet could see surface melt (Figure 1).
The second event is a ridge of hot, moist air developing over the Central Siberian Plateau that could bring > 30 °C (86 °F) 2-meter air temps to very near the Laptev Sea coastline, well north of the Arctic Circle by Wednesday, June 18th (Figure 2).
Siberia has the most extreme seasonality of anyplace on the planet, and this heat wave is an impressive contrast to the region's notorious frigid winter conditions. Sea ice extent in the Laptev Sea is now well below normal (Figure 3), coincident with this most recent warm circulation pattern and following an unusually warm winter across the Arctic Ocean (Figure 4).
That's the Northern Hemisphere. Down south the picture is a little different, with Antarctica last week seeing 2-3 days with a continent-wide 2-meter air temperature anomaly of about -4 °C (Figure 5).
El Niño - how could I forget you? El Niño conditions are developing across the equatorial Pacific (Figure 6), and global weather patterns could become a bit wild over the coming months.
That's all for now folks.